It has been an impressive eight-week stretch for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 Index staging one of its best relief rallies of the past three decades. Investors expecting to ride out another bull market should tread carefully now that the latest earnings forecasts are in.Following a painful entry into bear-market territory on the eve of Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 Index has recovered an astounding 18%. On Friday, it closed at 2,775.60, its highest since Dec. 3.The recent run of good fortune has come largely on the back of better than expected corporate earnings as well as signs of progress on U.S.-China trade talks. But these catalysts could become headwinds in the near future.Case in point: FactSet recently issued grim guidance for S&P 500 companies, forecasting a year-over-year drop in earnings during the first quarter of 2019. The research firm’s rationale for the downgrade comes from the so-called bottom-up earnings per share (ESP), which is “an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for all the companies” in the S&P 500 Index. This figure declined by 4.1% in January, a much bigger decline than the five-year, ten-year and 15-year averages.All 11 primary sectors tracked by the S&P 500 recorded a decline in their bottom-up EPS estimate during the month of January. The biggest losses were reported by energy and information technology, the S&P’s largest and fifth largest sectors, respectively.That leads us to the following scary chart, which appeared on the Quoth the Raven Twitter feed on Friday:Forward earnings are a forecast of a company’s next-period earnings, usually to completion of the current fiscal year or next fiscal year.Related reading: The January Stock Rally Could Face a Painful Reversal.Morgan Stanley, one of America’s largest banks, is warning investors not to “get caught up in price momentum” of the latest rally. The warning comes as the S&P 500 is once again approaching 2,800, a level where rallies come to die.While valuation isn’t a reliable predictor for market timing, the headwinds posed by 2,800 are compelling. Combined with dismal earnings guidance, it’s likely that market fundamentals will detract from the latest rally attempt.If the S&P 500 does go beyond 2,800, its valuation based on 2019 average per-share earnings will be 16.5 times forward earnings. As Bloomberg notes, that’s the average reading of the past five years and a strong sign that stocks are becoming overvalued.“Don’t get caught up in the price momentum, as if the market is telling you something that may happen,” Mike Wilson, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, told Bloomberg TV. “The data isn’t improving, and the data probably isn’t going to improve over the next two to three quarters, and that’s going to create uncertainty again when you’re trading at 2,750-2,800.”Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. Charts via Barchart.com. Stocks Surge on U.S.-China Trade Optimism; Dow Notches Eighth Consecutive Weekly GainMarket Update: U.S. Stocks Face Massive Selloff as Volatility Hits Six-Month HighMarket Update: S&P 500 Joins Dow in Record Territory; XRP Leads Cryptocurrencies to StabilityPre-Market: Stocks Grind Higher as Google Beats, Turkish Lira TumblesMarket Update: Stock-Rally Slams on Breaks Trade Fears LingerMarket Update: Volatility Makes a Stunning Return as Trade Risks Sink Global Stocks You must be logged in to post a comment Login With bated breath, each year investors from around the world await the annual letter from the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.In my my humble opinion, this year we received more insight into the current market conditions than any before. It seems that Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway has joined in the global trend of buying back their own shares in 2018.Warren is known to be able to spot companies that are at fair value and it seems that the 88-year-old legendary investor is unable to find enough good deals out there that are worthy of his investment. So instead of buying new companies, he’s opted to buy back shares in his own company.Thanks to an entire decade of low interest rates and ample liquidity injections from the world’s central banks, companies are flush with cash and stocks are overvalued. (Rant continued, including implications for crypto, in section two).Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of February 25th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.Stocks are flying today on the news that President Trump has postponed the March 1st deadline for a US-China trade deal.As the tweet did not mention any new deadline, we can probably assume that there isn’t one for the time being. The China 50 index has soared a jaw-dropping 6.31% this morning.Concurrently, it seems that the timetable for Brexit has once again been pushed forward. Prime Minister May has set her sights on March 12th for a final Brexit vote in Parliament. Of course, this deadline hardly seems set in stone and the real deadline for the UK to exit the EU is March 29th. Of course, this deadline hardly seems set in stone either and could very well be moved. Talk of extending it to mid-April is already floating around.For the first time in a long time, there are no countdown timers hanging over the market’s head. We did prophesize that such a day might come in Friday’s market update but I never thought it would come so soon.To be clear the geopolitical risks have not gone away, only that the specific time frame for any single risk materializing has become so obscure as to not be relevant. With the can successfully kicked down the road the central banks are once again in the driver’s seat.As we know, markets tend to move in boom and bust cycles more commonly known as bull and bear markets. This is more often then not a simple function of the amount of available money in the world combined with the general sentiment towards investing.For different assets, we can expect different timeframes for these cycles. For example in the stock market, the average cycle is usually about 4.5 years. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is new and because it’s price discovery is going through a period of discovery, cycles may vary from a few months to more than a year. For now, we’re at the tail end of bitcoin’s longest ever bear run.The volatility of 2017 and 2018 was driven by expectations around the world’s central banks. We saw massive price rises across all industries in ’17 as the Fed continued to feed the markets and in ’18 investments started to dry up as the Fed signaled a shift in policy.At the beginning of 2019, the world’s central banks have pledged further support and we can see the impact on the stocks very clearly. Arguably, this new sentiment could be having a knock on effect in the crypto market.Yes, I’m rambling, I know, but here’s a graph that should put everything I’m saying into context.With bitcon in blue and the Dow Jones in red, we use a double X-axis to determine if the direction of travel is proportionate. For further accentuation of the magnitude of these moves, I’ve set both lines to a logarithmic scale.Notice how the stock market has responded very quickly to the Fed’s shift in policy and has already recouped almost all of its Q4 losses. Bitcoin has not done so just yet.In truth, I have no idea what caused yesterday’s crypto plunge. Most likely, some crypto traders were piling on just a little too much leverage and the market pushed back by taking them out. Or, it could have been a large seller. Or, it could have been any combination of several factors playing out.However, there are a few things we can learn from this type of movement so here are a few thoughts that I had about it….Number one, even though the market continues to mature, these bouts of volatility, both up and down, remind us that the market is extremely volatile and therefore risky. So, it always pays to diversify your portfolio with other assets.Number two, like the surge we saw last Sunday, yesterday’s plunge was led by altcoins Ethereum and EOS. So, even though there seems to be a growing divide between excitement over bitcoin and sentiment in the rest of the markets, we can see that they are influencing each other as the markets remain correlated.Number three, the level of the pullback is actually quite encouraging. In fact, most of Sunday’s 9% plunge was actually just erasing some of Saturday’s gains. Ever since the spike on February 8th, the market has been trying to build support at $3,500. Yesterday we stalled a good $300 above that.If January was a giant downward facing staircase, February has now turned into an upward one.Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart AnalysisThe three-month-long truce between the US and China will end next week, and in theory, tariffs on Chinese products worth hundreds of billions of dollars would be implemented in March. While we think that that’s highly unlikely, the exact way of avoiding it is still not clear. Last week, rumors surfaced the two sides are already close to formal agreement, and although we don’t know anything about the details, market participants would likely be happy with anything other than an escalation.That said, while President Trump will likely declare victory following an agreement, it’s hard to imagine that China will just stop with the practices that the Trump administration and the Western elite in general condemned. The other possible outcome for next week is that the deadline will be postponed, since, given the recent extended round of talks and the gestures that we observed, it would be a huge surprise if the additional tariffs would actually be introduced.Looking at the performance of the main Chinese markets since the end of the New Year holiday, we see bullish trends, with the Shanghai Composite getting close to the 2800 level, hitting its highest mark in 4 months, and with the Chinese Yuan also being close to its recent highs against the USD. Despite the rally of this month, Chinese equities are still in a deep bear market, and as the rally on Wall Street is also maturing, a sell-the-news event could be ahead next week.The top cryptocurrencies had a tumultuous weekend, as on Saturday, we saw the resumption of the recent counter-trend rally, while today, the market sold off sharply in a concerted fashion. With the still clearly declining long-term trends in the segment in mind, bulls should remain defensive after today’s plunge even as the leaders of the rally are still holding on to a large chunk of their gains.Tracking the leaders of the move, and Litecoin, Ethereum, and EOS in particular could help in navigating through next week, with the most rising short-term trendlines in those coins being at the center of attention. Ethereum, which still holds the title of the second largest coin regarding market capitalization, could be the most important digital currency of the week, and a move below $130 would confirm the end of the short-term advance, while a recovery above $150 could give back the hope for bulls.The duality in global stock markets is still striking, as although the major US indices recovered a big part of the deep year-end sell-off, the already-mentioned Chinese benchmarks and the main European markets continue to severely lag behind. In the US, the Russell 2000, the main small-cap index has been showing the way to the broader market for months now, and the benchmark continued to perform well this week.On the other hand, while European stocks also gained ground in recent weeks, they are still in bearish technical setups. The German DAX, which has been under pressure due to the horrible economic data from the Eurozone, managed to reach the strong 11,500 resistance this week, and there is good chance that that level will provide too strong for the relatively weak benchmark.So while investors should keep a close eye on US small caps next week, the divergence between the leaders and the laggards could start to ease, and odds favor a global risk-off shift amid the apparent slowdown in manufacturing and trade activity.Jerome Powell will be the star of the week, as the Fed Chair will testify in the House and the Senate on the Fed’s monetary policies, and we will especially be curious of his opinion on the recent set of economic numbers in light of the Central Bank’s dovish shift.The shift has been one of the key catalysts of the risk rally in the past two months, but as the US benchmarks have been very strong lately, while the US economy held its ground relatively well amid the global slowdown, it will be hard to justify the easy stance of the Fed.The dollar which got under pressure for a brief period due to the Fed’s shift, has been testing its highs against a basket of currencies in recent weeks, and although a break-out in the reserve currency, which would translate to a key break-down in the EUR/USD, still didn’t happen, the long-term uptrend in the USD is clearly intact. A slightly more-hawkish-than-expected Powell might very well be the trigger of a larger-scale move, but in any case, forex markets are likely in for an eventful week.As for economic numbers, the US will provide the most important releases, although we will have a few key European indicators coming out in the second half of the week. The US CB Consumer Confidence Index will be out on Tuesday, together with the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index, US Pending Home Sales and the Canadian CPI report are scheduled for Wednesday, and Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, the German CPI, the Chicago PMI, and the US Advance GDP print will be released on Thursday.The last day of the week will be the busiest, as the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the British Manufacturing PMI, the Fed-favorite Core PCE Price Index, the ISM manufacturing PMI, US Personal Income, and the Canadian GDP print will all be released on Friday, so will get a lot of new data regarding the health of the global economy.U.S. stocks advanced Friday, as the major benchmarks rebounded from their worst slide in two weeks on renewed optimism over China trade talks. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rebounded from a midweek slump, strengthening the case for a larger short-term rally.The Dow Jones Industrial Average smashed through 26,000 on Friday and settled close to its intraday high. The blue-chip index closed up 181.18 points, or 0.7%, at 26,031.81. Twenty-three of 30 index members finished higher, led by Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Intel Corp (INTC).With the gain, the Dow extended its weekly winning streak to nine weeks, the longest since 1995.The large-cap S&P 500 Index gained 0.6% to settle at 2,792.67. Nine of 11 primary sectors contributed to the rally, with shares of information technology companies leading the charge. The sector rose 1%. Health care and communication services also outperformed the broad average.A strong performance for tech stocks sent the Nasdaq Composite Index sharply higher. The tech-laden average rose 0.9% to 7,527.54.Stocks returned to strength Friday on reports that officials from the U.S. and China held marathon talks aimed at resolving their trade dispute. Trade representatives met in Washington for nine hours on Thursday, where they discussed a range of issues including state subsidies and illicit technology transfers.President Donald Trump was also said to be meeting China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, on Friday. No further updates have been provided.While a trade deal between the two countries remains highly unlikely, Trump has expressed willingness to extend the negotiating window beyond the March 1 deadline. He told reporters Friday that the deadline isn’t a “magical date” but a good barometer to measure progress from both sides.Bitcoin’s price climbed back above $4,000 Friday, as momentum swung in favor of the bulls following a minor midweek slump. The leading digital currency by market cap reached a session high of $4,074 on Bitfinex and was last spotted in $4,050 range.Via CoinMarketCap, bitcoin’s aggregate value was a hair below $4,000 at press time, enough for a gain of 1.3%. Over the past seven days, BTC gained 10.3%.The top-20 coins traded higher on Friday and booked solid gains for the week. EOS was the top performer, gaining 3.87% for the week. Ethereum gained 22% and bitcoin cash was 18.5% higher.Read our Week in Review: Crypto Spring? Bitcoin on Track to Snap Six-Month Losing Streak Following Spectacular Week.The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization improved to $135.3 billion, having gained $15 billion over the past seven days. Trade volumes are down sharply from their early-week highs but are still well above the yearly average.Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.6 Upcoming Events That Could Trigger a Price Pump for These CryptocurrenciesLitecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Set for Another Potential Explosive Move North as Bulls Penetrate Pennant PatternEthereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD Bulls Aim to Retest 2019 Highs Ahead of Planned Hard ForksEthereum Price Analysis: Volume Spike Pushes ETH/USD to Monthly HighsNEO Price Analysis: NEO/USD Bulls Eyeing an Explosive Move Higher as Cryptocurrency Enters Western MarketsXRP Price Analysis: Explosive Breakout from Pennant Confirmed; SBI Holdings CEO Bullish on XRPMonero Price Analysis: The Choice of Cyber Criminals, XMR/USD is Vulnerable to Full Reversal