With Bitcoin trading around $40,000 many readers are asking, “Am I in time to invest in Bitcoin, is it worth investing with Bitcoin at this price?” .
The quick answer to this question is: Yes, you are on time. We don’t think you’ll be late to the party.
According to analysts at JP Morgan the price of Bitcoin will soar in the medium term to reach an estimated $146. 0001 , while the same investment firm believes it will reach $650,000 by the end of 20222 .
If we look at the mathematical models that aim to — and succeed in — forecasting the price of Bitcoin , the Stock to Flow (S2F, hereafter) model stands out. Said mathematical model was created by a Dutch institutional investor, whose identity has not transcended, with a background in the field of quantitative finance3. So far the S2F model has managed to forecast with astonishing accuracy all Bitcoin movements, and claims that its price will reach $288,0004 in the current growth cycle (Reaching $1 million in 2024). In a few paragraphs we will tell you all the ins and outs of this surprising predictive mathematical model, which so far has been accurate as clockwork.
In short and by way of summary: If you have not yet invested in Bitcoin you have in front of you the opportunity to achieve potential returns of between 265% and 1,525% in the medium term, according to the estimates of financial analysts and mathematical models mentioned.
Throughout this article we will explain everything you need to know to discover the real impact that Bitcoin has on the economy by proposing a paradigm shift, as well as everything you need to become an educated investor, able to take advantage of an opportunity that, perhaps, will never be presented to us again in our lives.
By now you probably have a fairly formed idea about what Bitcoin is and what its function is. By way of summary, Bitcoin was created by a mathematician (or group of experts in mathematics and cryptography) self-named Satoshi Nakamoto. Although the actual identity of this person or group of people is unknown, it is believed that Bitcoin was created to:
As we see what Bitcoin proposes is a paradigm shift: until now we have relied on governments and central banks to manage, support and manipulate the global monetary system; Bitcoin dispossesses these actors of such power.
What gives Bitcoin its value?
To answer this question we first have to ask ourselves what gives value to the dollar. Until not so long ago the coins and bills that were in circulation were notes of exchange that could be exchanged for spot gold. Dollar bills included, in small print, “Ten Dollars: In gold coin payable to the bearer of this bill.”
In effect, in those days we could show up at the US Federal Reserve and ask to have our bill exchanged for its gold equivalent. All banknotes in circulation were backed by gold, held by the central bank of each country.
However, some time later governments began to spend the gold they stored in their central banks. They realized that they could spend that gold and in parallel print more banknotes (not backed by gold) to generate unlimited wealth. Apparently nothing happened and the citizens did not complain.
At that moment the world monetary system left aside the “gold standard”, and we went on to have a currency backed, solely and exclusively, by government imposition, with no real intrinsic value.
This monetary system, called fiat or fiduciary, only has value because governments have forced it to be so by decree.
And, of course, because we citizens have decided to obey.
It only has value because we all obey and believe it should have value. Its value is based, solely and exclusively, on popular belief.
However, the traditional or fiat monetary system has a terrible problem: It gives absolute power to central banks to print banknotes in an uncontrolled manner.
When banknotes are printed uncontrollably, inflation is created. Printing banknotes does not mean creating wealth, quite the opposite: printing banknotes means stealing wealth from citizens, diluting existing wealth.
Let’s look at it with an example: Let’s say that there are currently 1 billion euros in circulation in Spain, and that a loaf of bread costs 1€. To get out of the coronavirus crisis, the European Central Bank decides to put an additional 1 billion euros into circulation, doubling the amount of money in circulation. Is Spain now twice as rich? Not at all, the wealth of the country will remain the same, only the value of money has been diluted: The loaf of bread that used to cost €1 will now be worth twice as much. The citizen who had €1,000 saved in the bank has just seen the value of his money decrease by half. The State has just robbed him of half of his savings.
Money printing dilutes the value of money in circulation. Money printing is nothing more than a strategy of central banks to steal wealth from the citizen, to impoverish him even more. One need only look at the cases of Venezuela and Argentina.
At this point, any reader will understand the inevitable need for an alternative monetary system, which is not under the clutches of states and governments, which is not manipulable and which does not leave citizens disempowered.
As a counterpoint to the monetary scenario we have presented, Bitcoin appeared. However, it is quite possible that before investing in Bitcoin you are still asking yourself: but what really gives Bitcoin value ?
In recent years the mainstream media have repeated ad nauseam that Bitcoin was nothing more than a bubble, equating it, without any basis whatsoever, to the tulip bubble and other great bubbles in history.
In fact, according to Bitcoin Obituaries5, the media have “killed” Bitcoin a total of 397 times, sentencing that it was pure speculation, a bubble, a fad… Articles and opinions that have certainly not aged well at all and that were written by someone who had no idea what he was dealing with.
What many today have not come to understand is that Bitcoin, like many other markets and financial assets, has a cyclical behavior. Its natural and healthy growth consists of sharp rises followed by not-so-sharp falls.
Most financial assets have a cyclical behavior, including large technology companies, gold or silver, or even commodities such as coffee.
The natural growth cycle of Bitcoin has its own peculiarities and idiosyncrasies, but fortunately our has already been studied enough today and we can draw on it to find out if right now is a good time to invest in Bitcoin.
As of the writing of this article, Bitcoin has gone through three complete growth cycles, and we are on the verge of the fourth. In each cycle the Bitcoin price grows exponentially. In fact to represent such cycles of Bitcoin a logarithmic scale is required, because with a linear standard one they cannot be properly appreciated.
In the following graph you can see the Bitcoin growth cycles, which consist of months of strong rise in the price followed by slight declines (called corrections):
Something of great interest that we draw from analyzing the Bitcoin growth cycles with perspective is that the current moment we are in (marked with the red marker in the image above) is an exceptionally good time to invest in Bitcoin.
At this point, and before investing in Bitcoin, you will probably want to dig further into the predictive models that project the Bitcoin price to the levels we discussed a few paragraphs above.
As we mentioned in the introduction, the best known and most respected model for the accuracy it has demonstrated is the Stock to Flow (S2F, hereafter). It is an adaptation of pre-existing models used to predict the price of commodities such as gold, silver or palladium, all of them–including Bitcoin–with a peculiarity in common: they have a limited amount of supply.
As you may recall, the maximum number of Bitcoins that can be mined is 21 million, and currently 18.5 million of that total have already been “released”. Clearly, if demand continues to increase as it has so far, supply will not be enough to meet it. By law of supply and demand the only solution to that equation is for the price to grow to the levels posited by the S2F6 model.
The S2F model is far more complex than what we have described here7, as it takes into account other intrinsic variables in Bitcoin, such as the halvings, the Bitcoins that have been lost, the cryptocurrencies that are available in circulation, the Bitcoin phase changes and clusters… However, it is too complex a mathematical model to deal with in detail in this article.
Since the anonymous institutional investor known as PlanB published this mathematical model a couple of years ago the price of Bitcoin has continued to grow following the proposed pattern with astonishing accuracy. In fact, due to the accuracy of this model, S2F is considered to be the most accurate predictive model we have for predicting the price of Bitcoin. The most relevant aspect of this model is that it considers that in the fifth Bitcoin growth cycle it will reach an estimated price of $288,000, while in the medium term (in 2026, approximately) it could surpass $1,000,000.
The S2F model might not have much relevance in isolation were it not for the fact that analysts from large investment funds agree, in whole or in part, in their predictions for the price of Bitcoin.
The renowned investment bank JP Morgan published this past January its estimates on the price of Bitcoin, placing it in the medium term above $146,000, “because Bitcoin already competes with gold”8.
The same financial analysts at the American firm were saying a few days later that, as soon as Bitcoin manages to breach the $40,000 barrier, “it is very unlikely to go back below those levels”9.
In the same vein in late 2020 an internal document from Wall Street giant Citibank was leaked, in which its analysts estimated that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by the end of 202110, and called the dominant cryptocurrency “the gold of the 21st century”.
Chamath Palihapitiya, the well-known billionaire investor, has no hesitation in placing the Bitcoin price at $200,000 in the medium term. “How long will it take? I don’t know, maybe 5 or 10 years, but it will get to that price,” he explains11.
Max Keiser, a financial analyst and Wall Street veteran who has managed to predict the price of Bitcoin with great accuracy, estimates that Bitcoin will reach $220,000 later this year: “With the hashrate reaching new highs, the 2021 target is $220,000.”12.
In these paragraphs we have synthesized some of the most popular and relevant forecasts for anyone who wants to invest in Bitcoin. However, we could go on listing many more. The important thing in this regard is to understand that in the financial world there is consensus on one aspect: Bitcoin will continue to grow by leaps and bounds and exponentially; this has only just begun.
A few years ago there was much talk that when institutions (large banks, corporations, businesses and government entities) adopt Bitcoin there will be a point of no return in their growth.
That distant horizon is today.
While we were writing this article the news that Tesla had bought $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and that Elon Musk’s company was going to allow its customers to pay with this dominant cryptocurrency13 was made public. This news has propelled the price of Bitcoin to $48,000, a tipping point that will most likely mean we will never see Bitcoin below $40,000 again.
What does it mean that Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, has decided to put a part of Tesla’s treasury in Bitcoin? That many more companies are going to follow this path.
Tesla has not been the first, other companies such as Microstrategy, Square or Paypal have been buying Bitcoins massively for months and trying not to make much noise.
Big investment funds and institutional investors such as Grayscale, Morgan Stanley, ARK Investments or Rothschild Investment own Bitcoin, directly or indirectly. As reported by Bloomberg a year ago, almost 40% of US and European banking institutions already own Bitcoin or derivative products14. (Today it is very likely that this percentage has already surpassed 50%). In the US even retirement funds are starting to invest in Bitcoin15.
All the Bitcoin buyers we’ve listed (and many others we haven’t mentioned) have been buying Bitcoin in excess of the available supply for months. There is no Bitcoin for everyone, and the market’s way of regulating supply shortage and excess demand is to continuously and steadily increase prices.
The massive irruption of institutional investors brings innumerable benefits to the Bitcoin ecosystem. First of all, it acts by stabilizing the system, taking away volatility (sudden changes in price), while fostering continuous growth in the price of the dominant cryptocurrency.
In short, the institutional breakthrough in Bitcoin has caused the market to mature by leaps and bounds. Gone are those days when Bitcoin could drop 40% in hours due to the weakness of a market primarily made up of retail investors. Institutional investors are “strong hands”, buy to hold and are not driven by cycles or one-off news.
Institutional irruption is synonymous with stability, growth and maturity.
At this point of the article you are probably already aware that we are living a paradigm shift, a historical moment. We have no doubt that in the not too distant future society will be divided between those who own Bitcoin and those who do not have such a privilege.
By way of summary, we would like to summarize the advantages that investing in Bitcoin can offer us in the middle of 2021:
According to the mathematical models and forecasts we have seen in this article the price of Bitcoin will in the short term be above six figures, while in the medium term we can expect it to exceed a quarter of a million dollars.
We are talking about potential medium-term returns located between 150% and 500%. What other asset or investment can give such high potential returns? .
And we are not talking about “optimistic” forecasts.
We are talking about history: Bitcoin has been, most probably, the most profitable investment we have ever had at our disposal for years. In the last 2 years it has given a return of +1,187%. In the last 5, of +10,536% (yes, ten thousand percent). In the month and a half so far in 2021 Bitcoin has already given a return of over +60%.
Those who right now believe that it is already too late to invest in Bitcoin imagine what they will think when its price exceeds a quarter of a million dollars.
In recent months we have witnessed the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank moving towards experimental monetary policies based on quantitative easing .
The Western central banks that control the euro and the dollar have decided that the solution to get out of the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 is to print more money to inject into the economies.
As is evident and we have already seen in this article, wealth cannot be created out of thin air. Printing money is not a solution to move the economy forward, quite the contrary: it only devalues currencies and steals purchasing power from citizens.
This experimental and historically unprecedented solution – widely criticized by large sectors of society – has begun to devalue the price of the dollar and the euro and is putting economies at risk of hyperinflation.
In the US, 35% of all dollars in circulation have been printed in the last 10 months16. The Federal Reserve printed more bills in a single month than in 2 entire centuries17.
In the face of this unprecedented manipulation by Western governments and central banks investing in Bitcoin is not a possibility; it is imperative to protect our purchasing power and grow our wealth.
No government or entity in the world will be able to “print” more Bitcoins or manipulate their value. Bitcoin is, let us remember, an unmanipulable and deflationary currency: it was designed to increase in value with each passing day.
For many investing in Bitcoin has a clear ideological component. Investing in Bitcoin means embracing the paradigm shift we are living, it means repudiating the current monetary system manipulated and controlled by the powerful to evolve towards a fairer, more equitable, unmanipulable and decentralized monetary and store of value system.
Investing in Bitcoin today also represents being part of a minority of early adopters. Although it may seem that Bitcoin has already intensely penetrated society we are still at a relatively early stage; it may seem to be late, but a look with perspective shows us otherwise.
And as has happened in the past with other advances, early adopters usually benefit from being pioneers in embracing a new technology. As of this writing, it is estimated that 100 million people own Bitcoin18, representing just 1.32% of humanity. It is estimated that only 0.01% of humanity owns more than 1 BTC19.
It seems plausible to think that in the not too distant future society will be divided between two types of individuals: those who have been able to accumulate considerable amounts of Bitcoin, and those who have not.
Bitcoin may represent an unparalleled wealth redistribution opportunity: but only for those willing to pay attention to it and determined to undertake the movement. Elon Musk, one of today’s most privileged and visionary minds, seems to have realized just in time.
Investing in Bitcoin, although relatively simple nowadays, is not a risk-free activity. For now we still can not go to our traditional bank to make the management, and there are many scams that aim to trap the unwary.
Similarly, we find a multitude of exchanges located in tax havens, China or in places that do not require any type of regulation and do not offer any guarantee to the customer.
One of the few reliable alternatives we found is the broker eToro.com , one of the most well-known and widely used exchanges worldwide. Based in London and authorized by the CySEC, the FCA (the UK Financial Authority) and the CNMV, it is the favorite choice of more than 20 million investors worldwide. It’s fast, it’s easy and it has the guarantees required by the European Union.
eToro.com, with all the European regulations and guarantees required, is the only exchange we can recommend to our readers without reservation. In addition eToro.com allows you to add funds instantly via Paypal, credit card or SEPA bank transfer, among others.
Creating an account at eToro.com takes no more than 5 minutes and is completely free:
For your convenience, you can log in with your Facebook account. Once we have entered our data, we will arrive at the following screen:
In the bottom left corner, we click on the “Deposit funds” button. It will take us to the next screen:
We enter the amount we want to deposit. In our case we start with a deposit of £10.000. eToro works with US Dollars ($), so the deposit we make in $ will be automatically converted to US Dollars. We recommend starting with small amounts, in the order of £500 or £1,000. There is always time to invest more money.
In this screen we will have to select the payment method. We can choose between depositing funds by credit card, bank transfer, Paypal… In our case we choose Paypal as it is a very safe payment method that offers protection to the buyer.
With the deposit made, we click on the left menu “Instruments”. In the next screen we will find several cryptocurrencies to invest in:
In our case, to buy Bitcoins, we search for the symbol BTC and click on “Buy”. The following window will open:
We enter the amount we want to buy at this very moment ($1.000 in our case) and click on “Open Trade”. And at that very moment, We are already the proud buyers of a portion of Bitcoin equivalent to $1.000!
It should be added that, of course, eToro also offers us the option to sell the Bitcoins when we decide that the time has come to liquidate our investment and take the potential profits. At that moment our cryptocurrencies will be sold at the market price and the dollars from closing the transaction will appear in our account. And not only that, but eToro also offers the possibility of “betting” down through orders known as short sell: These orders allow us to profit from an asset that is in decline.
Generally speaking there is no minimum amount to invest in Bitcoin. Most investment platforms allow us to buy fractions of Bitcoin, which allows small investors to trade with ease. In the case of eToro the minimum to invest in Bitcoin is $25 (or the equivalent in euros or pounds).
Years ago eToro.com did not offer real cryptocurrencies to its customers. Instead, it offered CFD (Contracts for Difference, a derivative product) on cryptocurrencies. However, they have long offered real cryptocurrencies .
Of course not, you can buy fractions of bitcoin. Just as the euro has smaller units (cents), the Bitcoin also has smaller parts: the so-called satoshis. Each Bitcoin contains 100 million satoshis, so at the time of writing this article 1,000 satoshis is equivalent to about €0.38.
Any investment, whatever the product, carries risks. And Bitcoin, like any other investment, is not without risk. However, if we decide to invest in this dominant cryptocurrency through a regulated broker registered with the National Securities Market Commission, we will be able to reduce the potential risks of the operation. On the other hand, we believe that Bitcoin has entered a period of maturation, with lower volatility and fewer sharp drops, creating a more favorable scenario for investors seeking greater stability.