Key facts:
During the holiday, the Chinese sell their bitcoins to have cash and to travel.
Analysts believe that the market disruption for the Chinese New Year is a “fabricated attribution.”
Major social, economic or political events in the world are factors that often influence the variation in the price of bitcoin. Hence, it is considered a volatile asset. The celebration of the Chinese New Year is one of those events of the year, which is believed to affect the price of the cryptocurrency.
The beginning of the event coincides with the phenomenon of the new moon that occurs between the months of January and February because the Chinese calendar corresponds to the lunar cycles.
This 2021 the celebration happens from February 12 to 15. For Chinese culture, it is a very popular event, characterized by being the time when millions of Chinese go on vacation and travel to meet family and friends. In fact, this mobilization is considered the largest annual migration of the planet or chunyun (spring transport, in Chinese).
Another of the customs that the Chinese have, in a time that resembles Christmas for Western culture, is to give money in red envelopes as a symbol of prosperity and good luck.
On the influence of this event on the price of bitcoin, the vice president of cryptocurrency wallet Cobo, Alex Zuo, explained that Chinese merchants “tend to withdraw their crypto assets and collect cash during this period. It’s akin to the way people in America profit from stocks before Christmas. “
Likewise, users of the Bitcoin Talk forum discussed the issue in 2018 and related it to cryptocurrency mining. They indicated that the end of the Chinese year would have “a small impact on the price”, as the miners sell assets like bitcoin.
Another aspect that has possibly influenced the market is that, being a moment of celebration in China, the miners also decide to make a stop in their activities, so that the Chinese over-the-counter (OTC, for its acronym in English) ) also close. This generates volatility in the price of cryptocurrencies, according to the Boxmining medium.
According to the bitcoin mining map, designed by the alternative financial center of Cambridge, the Asian giant remains the first place, with 61% of the average monthly hash rate (processing capacity) in bitcoin mining.
However, this is something that may change in the coming years, if miners migrate to countries like Russia, the United States or Iran. This is due to tougher regulations from the Chinese government, increased inspections by authorities, and lower production capacity by equipment manufacturers, which puts pressure on miners.
By making a detailed review of the market movements during the days leading up to the Chinese New Year of the year 2017, it can be identified that, by January 3 of that year, BTC exceeded the all-time high (ATH) that it had at that time, when it exceeded USD 1,000. Then during the Chinese celebration on January 28, bitcoin fell to $ 914, which was an 80% drop.
In 2017 bitcoin reached the milestone of reaching the price of USD 1,000. Source: Coingecko.com
A similar situation arose in 2018. During the holiday, the value of bitcoin went from USD 9,741 to USD 5,947, a 61% drop in the price of the cryptocurrency.
The outlook for bitcoin did not change during 2018, although its value was at USD 9,000, it fell to USD 5,947 before the holiday. Source: Coingecko.com.
The year 2019 was no exception for what would be a “normal” behavior of bitcoin during the months of January or February, on the dates of the Chinese New Year. At that time, the price of bitcoin fell to $ 3,358 from a seasonal high of $ 3,646.
The value of bitcoin in 2019 during the Chinese celebration was more stable. Source: Coingecko.com
With one bitcoin above $ 9,000, the year 2020 arrived and on January 19, six days before the Chinese New Year, the price dropped to $ 8,610.
The scenario set for that year changed with the appearance of the coronavirus, which spread from China, where the outbreak began at the end of 2019, the holiday being interrupted by the quarantine in that country, so there was not the expected mobility. Then governments in various countries of the world confined their citizens and the cryptocurrency market did not escape the onslaught of the pandemic.
On March 12, bitcoin lost 40 percent of its value in 24 hours, leading to the so-called “Black Thursday.”
The coronavirus in 2020 caused months after the Chinese New Year the well-known “Black Thursday” when bitcoin lost 40% of its value in one day. Source: Coingecko.com.
This year the landscape has changed for bitcoin and for everyone who has invested in the cryptocurrency. Although the coronavirus continues to affect a large part of the world population, the boost given to it by institutional investors By entering the cryptocurrency market, you have increased the value of the currency exponentially.
A clear example of what these investors can do is the effect caused by the decision of billionaire Elon Musk, who through his company Tesla invested more than USD 1,500 million in BTC, taking the value of the cryptocurrency to a new all-time high of $ 48,000, a few days before the Chinese holiday.
During this year, bitcoin has broken its own mark in terms of its price, reaching USD 48,000. Source: Coingecko.com
As for the influence of the Chinese holiday that begins this February 12, there are analysts who assure there is no effect in this period of the year in the bitcoin market. Despite that approach, the price of bitcoin has risen significantly on the eve of the celebration.
Jake Wujastyk, TrendSpider’s chief market analyst, doesn’t think the market volatility can be attributed to the Chinese New Year. “It’s natural to be drawn to a fabricated attribution, but in this case, it’s just normal behavior after a great career,” the analyst told Chinese media.
For Wujastyk the reasons that influence the rise or fall of the price of bitcoin, are related to the printing of money by the Federal Reserve of the United States, as well as other central banks that have taken on the task of printing money and keeping interest rates low.
On the other hand, the CEO of GoCoinstream.com, Michael Vogel, considers that, although it is true that there has been a decrease in the price of bitcoin in recent years during the celebration of the Chinese New Year, the trend is conservative so it is may consider a natural market behavior.
Vogel argues that miners “have weathered bear markets in the past and it can be challenging to remain profitable, depending on the size and cost factors of the operation.”
The executive also says that the costs of electricity, mining equipment and other expenses that can be generated by maintaining such an infrastructure “must be paid for in some way.”
For China’s specialized bitcoin outlet, 8BTC the cryptocurrency market has reached a point of maturity, not being fully stimulated by China, despite the fact that it remains a leader in the cryptocurrency mining sector.
Widespread adoption of the valuable currency in other countries could balance the balance. As such, some analysts argue that the holiday’s influence will not be strong this year because institutional investors in the US and Europe have been the main drivers of the current bull run. That contrasts with the bull market of other years, strongly driven by retail investors in Asia.
They thus consider events such as the Chinese New Year it will not affect the prices of cryptocurrencies, especially the value of bitcoin.