Analysis ICO Analysis: Social (Nexus) Published 8 months ago on August 19, 2017 By P. H. Madore Reader, be suspicious of anything that tells you it will establish a new social network. The establishment of social networks is semi-organic and requires a massive effort. Have a look at Minds.com, which is a great idea that integrates Bitcoin for promotion. Its still growing. The author has been there from the beginning. So dont take this statement the wrong way the author would love to see the social network monopolies of Twitter and Facebook broken, he just isnt overly confident that it will happen anytime soon, and here are presented with an investment that hinges on the building of a social network. // -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace. That just seems like a bad idea off the top, though well look a little further into it. Any social networking play would involve integrating with existing social networks. That would be the way to approach such a thing. Nexus Overview Nexus is a new generation of social network. All data and uploads will exist on the blockchain instead of centralized servers. Nexus is a feature rich platform that allows you to communicate with friends and family in multiple different and unique ways, while providing state-of-the-art security and privacy. This all sounds great, but none of it means it will take off. You need tens of millions to even begin to compete with any other social networking effort. It doesnt matter if you decentralize the data. It doesnt matter what you do. To build a social network, you need a social magnet. You need a lot of things that Facebook doesnt have. People may post on Facebook that they are concerned about being monitored and their data not being private, but its not the case that they will necessarily leave the social network right away. // -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- // Did you know an alternative software to Twitter has existed for the entire time that Twitter has existed? The software that Identi.ca is based on is open source anyone can implement it. For that purpose, its decentralized. The networks can be integrated through Oauth and other means. Its really incredible by comparison to Twitter, especially for businesses that want to operate social networks but as it turns out, the network effect is real in social networking. To build a social network, you need a lot. A lot more than a great idea. A lot more than good technology. MySpace allowed anyone to create a page, make it look however they wanted, and display music. This was great. Facebook came along and took all of these features away and still flourished. Facebook focused on being exclusive at first, which expanded its network effect, which is an ironic reality. By decentralizing and encrypting all data and uploads, Nexus hopes to eliminate all invasion of privacy that large corporations are currently performing. End-to-endmessageencryption ensures only you and the person youre communicating with can read what is sent, and nobody in between, not even Nexus. Imagine a full decentralized social network where all data and multimedia is stored on the blockchain instead of centralized servers. Again, this sounds great, but for all intents and purposes no one actually cares. People want to be where they can be accessed. LinkedIn has managed to flourish as a place to find people in business, and yet the new generation are largely dispensing with it. It would have made more sense for LinkedIn to have released the equivalent of Workplace, but Facebook beat them to that, too. Facebook may not have an eternal grip on social marketing, but it presents a tremendous obstacle to anyone trying to build alternatives. Minds.com, again, is a great alternative to other social media platforms people have to pay for the privilege to get their posts out there, and theres an internal currency which manages to integrate Bitcoin. Its a great project as well, but it will be a long time before it is large enough to matter. This is the simple reality of the matter. Social Token The token sale for this ICO is ongoing. The token will have a purpose, to be used on the platform for advertising and the purchase of goods and services. This is enticing on the face at least theyre forcing the use of the token for something. But overall, who cares, really? We have to depend on them to build a massive social network, and this much seems unlikely. You can build all the buzz around the thing you want, although they havent, really. One thing you can say for them is that they are doing the right thing with the tokens they are issuing, which there will be a maximum of 50 million. Out of those, 47.5 million will be for sale to the general public. It would be nice if more profitable, better ideas would also do similar with their tokens. Retaining tokens from the public while at the same time profiting during an ICO handsomely is strictly a red flag. It makes one wonder what ICOs intend to do with those tokens. So its a plus to see that theyre not doing that here, but again, this thing is probably going nowhere due to its actual mission. The Verdict We dont see any future in things which want our money to start competitors to well-established social networks. Risk Such a prospect as building a successful social network can take decades to achieve. -4 Growth Potential For short-term investments, its nice to see so many tokens being put on the market. This is unusual and should not be under-credited +4.5. Disposition We reach a numerical disposition of .5 on this token. We figure if you do invest, youd better dump quickly. Investment Details The ICO for the Nexus social tokens is ongoing. Visit https://ico.nexus.social/. Currently, they are offering a 40% bonus (another red flag) 700 tokens per Ether. Please invest with caution. Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink. Rate this post: Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way. (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this. Loading... P. H. Madore 5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsP. H. Madore has covered the cryptocurrency beat over the course of hundreds of articles for Hacked's sister site, CryptoCoinsNews, as well as some of her competitors. He is a major contributing developer to the Woodcoin project, and has made technical contributions on a number of other cryptocurrency projects. In spare time, he recently began a more personalized, weekly newsletter at http://ico.phm.link Follow @HackedCom Feedback or Requests? Related Topics:Nexus Up Next Trade Recommendation: IOTA Don't Miss Trade Recommendation: Dash You may like Chinese White Hats Win $200,000 for Hacking iPhones, Google Devices New Exploit Bypasses Android Lock Screens 1 Comment 1 Comment coinsoncoins August 19, 2017 at 7:14 pm great article Log in to Reply You must be logged in to post a comment Login Leave a Reply Cancel replyYou must be logged in to post a comment. Analysis Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Tests $9000 as Altcoins Pull Back after Strong Rally Published 10 hours ago on April 21, 2018 By Mate Cser The cryptocurrency segment is in a short-term correction after a great week that saw several key resistance levels fall, as the major coins kept up the bullish momentum and hit new rally highs after a shallow correction. Ethereum and the smaller altcoins continued to outperform Bitcoin on the way higher in the last couple of days, but today, Bitcoin is holding up relatively well amid the pullback, indicating a slight change of behavior. // -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace. BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis Bitcoin broke out of its lengthy declining trend, rallying quickly up to the key $9000-$9200 zone as expected, even though the momentum of the move has been relatively weak, and the coin failed to enter the zone, with the lower resistance line halting the advance, for now. The currency should remain above the declining trendline, but another short-term consolidation phase could be ahead as altcoins are likely entering a correction. Further resistance is ahead at $10,000 and $10,500 while support is found near $8400 and $7800. // -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- // ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis Ethereum hit the $625 level as we expected and it also broke out of its declining trend, after confirming a new short-term advance earlier on this week. Traders shouldnt enter new positions here, as the coin is stretched from a short-term perspective, while investors could still add to their holdings on the pullbacks. Support is now found between $555 and $575, and below that zone at $500, while strong resistance is ahead between $625 and $645 and near $740. (more) Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink. Rate this post: Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way. (4 votes, average: 4.75 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this. Loading... Mate Cser 4.5 stars on average, based on 228 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market. Follow @HackedCom Feedback or Requests? Continue Reading Stocks How to Trade Some of the Most Conspicuous Price Phenomena: Gaps and Windows Published 10 hours ago on April 21, 2018 By Konstantin Dimov Overview Gaps (as they are called in the West) and windows (their Japanese counterparts) have always attracted the attention of technicians most probably because they are nearly impossible to be missed on a price chart. After all, a trading session lying completely outside of the prior days range, which is what gaps and windows are by definition, must carry some kind of predictive power. However, a critical question remains are gaps and windows indicative of the beginning of a new trend (as it was the case for AAPL in Figure 1), or are they simply an overreaction and are subsequently quickly filled (as it was the case for MMM in Figure 2)? Notice how in the former case the gap stayed opened (and it still is) for more than a year, whereas in the latter case the gap was filled/closed within two months (i.e. subsequent price action in September completely overlapped the range of the gap). // -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace. Figure 1. AAPL Daily Figure 2. MMM Daily // -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- // Note, from here on, only the term gap is used, even though there is an important difference between the two gaps look at intraday prices when determining if they are filled, whereas windows only look at closing prices. At the bottom of the article, you can find references to several works on the price phenomenon, in which the difference between the two variations is discussed in-depth. Given that gaps occur quite frequently (see referenced materials for details), it is easy to understand how any gap strategy can be depicted to have predictive power. Most traditional books on technical analysis include a list of gap trading strategies followed by a few stellar charts that are supposed to prove the strategies validity (charts similar to Figures 1 & 2). Furthermore, given gaps conspicuous nature, most traditional trading strategies have their entry on the day the gap occurs (or Gap Day). For example, proponents of gaps being a continuation pattern would suggest that taking a position in the direction of the gap on Gap Day is profitable. On the other hand, technical analysts who believe that all gaps get filled suggest taking a position on Gap Day in the opposite direction of the gap. In both cases, action is taken on Gap Day. After trading and analyzing gaps for many years, I was certain that traditional theories do not work the way they are described to. Probably the most illogical stipulation made by various technical authors was that the gap itself should serve as support or resistance and once filled, gaps become insignificant. On the contrary, I had found that the gap itself is rarely a strong support or resistance and that very often the most significant gaps are those that have already been filled. This is when, in 2016, I developed a new theory on gaps (K-Divergence), which significantly diverges from traditional theories. Before discussing what the K-Divergence theory entails, an explanation of the most popular traditional theories is presented. Traditional Gap Theories 1. A gap is a continuation pattern. Strategy taking a position, on Gap Day, in the direction of the gap. This theory is based on the idea that if, on any given day, prices jump/fall significantly enough to never touch the prior sessions price range, something significant must have occurred and changed the markets sentiment on the company. In this case, on Gap Day, prices are assumed to reflect the changing opinion of the stock only partially, and thus, further movement in the direction of the gap is expected. In the case of AAPLs gap (Figure 1), on February 1, 2017, the company reported better-than-expected 1Q17 earnings on the heels of record breaking iPhone sales. Subsequently, the price continued moving higher in a swift fashion, leaving the up-gap behind it. Often, proponents of this theory use support and resistance levels, or technical indicators, as a confirmation that the gap has occurred at an important juncture and that it can be trusted. For example, zooming out and looking at the stocks price action since 2015 (Figure 3), traders who utilize gaps as continuation patterns can claim that the breakout occurred above the interim high of the multiple bottom formation, and therefore, carried high predictive power. Figure 3. AAPL 2-Day Chart 2. A gap is an overreaction. Strategy taking a position, on Gap Day, in the opposite direction of the gap Advocates of this theory are convinced that gaps are a result of market participants overreacting to news (or noise) and that once participation subsides, the gap is expected to get filled. The famous adage all gaps get filled is often used in an attempt to support this supposition. Similar to the previous strategy, support/resistance levels and technical indicators are expected to provide further confirmation if the particular gap is to be filled. For example, looking once again at the MMM chart (2-day chart Figure 4), one may say that the down-gap took prices close to a well-established uptrend (green trendline) and to a key moving average (100 SMA yellow line). Also, to further support the thesis that prices will reverse, one may point to the positive reversal in RSI (not to be confused with a positive divergence), which indicated that the correction has taken the stock to oversold levels during the uptrend (i.e. RSI making a lower low, while prices making a higher low). Figure 4. MMM 2-Day Chart The above two strategies are a perfect example of technical analysis being more of an art than science, where it is up to the technicians discretion to decide what action to take after observing a gap. While, after testing both strategies (see K-Divergence section), I found that neither the simple continuation nor reversal strategies are profitable on a systematic basis, there are definitely specific situations where the probability of a gap reversing is higher and vice versa. Unfortunately, the next strategy, the one found in almost any TA book, is one of the reasons why technical analysis has a bad name among most non-technicians. 3. A gap could be either a continuation pattern or an overreaction based on its classification. Strategy an ambiguous one based on hindsight As it had become evident that gaps cannot be all continuation patterns or overreactions, the popular gap classification system was born where gaps are categorized as either breakaway, continuation/runaway, exhaustion and common. This classification is based on two criteria 1) the location of the gap relative to preceding price action and 2) whether the gap gets filled or not. However, as one can imagine, there is no way to know on Gap Day whether a gap will be filled in the future. That is, the classification system is based on hindsight. Lets prove this point by looking at an example. Figure 5 shows an up-gap after a prolonged uptrend. Based on the widely-used classification system this gap can be runaway (if the gap does not get filled and prices continue higher), exhaustion (if prices quickly reverse, fill the gap and continue lower) or even common (if prices fill the gap but do not reverse or consolidate). Given the colour of the candle and the long upper wick, it seems like it is an exhaustion gap, right? Figure 5. Daily Chart (real chart, ticker hidden) Clearly, it is only in hindsight that this gap can be classified. In this case, the gap turned out to be of the runaway type as it did not get filled and the stock (MSFT) continued propelling higher (Figure 6). The point is, the classification system is futile for making decisions on Gap Day. Figure 6. MSFT Daily Chart K-Divergence (K-Div) Theory 4. Most gaps occur after prices have moved away from a significant support or resistance levels. Strategy taking a position in the direction of the gap, only after prices have returned to pre-gap levels More specifically, the theory suggests that in most cases an up-gap transpires after prices have already jumped from a key support level and a down-gap after prices have already fallen from a key resistance level. The theory is based on the premise that before a gap occurs prices have already reached a key level and have bounced from it. It is only later on, after most market participants agree on the direction of the next move and take positions in the same direction that gaps occur. This means that it is not the gap itself that should serve as a support or resistance, but rather the range of prices preceding it (pre-gap range). The most important implications of the theory are 1) the gap itself should not serve as support or resistance and 2) a filled gap is not insignificant. So why does the K-Divergence make sense from a technical point of view? After all, if prices gapped due to news that nobody was aware of, this would mean that gaps are nothing more than prices adjusting to the new information. Any such conclusion should render fundamental and technical analysis useless, for it would imply that no analyst is able to purchase a security before news gets disseminated. On the contrary, the K-Divergence assumes that the most astute market participants (i.e. the best fundamental and technical analysts, quants and even insiders) are able to trade in advance of the gap occurring. Therefore, true support and resistance levels lie prior to the gap transpiring and subsequent filling of the gap does not render it insignificant. It is best to illustrate this with an example. I will use one of my most recent predictions based on the theory, which was sent to one of my clients. First, I will describe the rational in detail with an updated chart (Figure 7), which will be followed by screenshots from the day the signal was given. After the close on February 1, 2018, Google reported its 4Q18. The next day, the stock opened sharply lower and continued falling into the close (Feb 2 Down Gap in Figure 7). The stock continued falling along with the market until the Feb 9 low was set. Subsequently, while NASDAQ was making new highs in early March, GOOG reached the pre-gap range (Bearish K-Divergence Range violet horizontal trendlines) and started stalling. Due to the strong bounce by the broader markets, the stock recovered and filled the gap. However, when the stock started trading at the pre-gap range, market participants were given a second chance to sell the stock for the same price it was trading at before the 4Q18 earnings were released. Price action confirmed the bearishness of the set-up (GOOG March 13 & 16 Figures 8 & 9). Figure 7. GOOG Daily Chart Figure 8. GOOG March 13 Figure 9. GOOG March 16 In order to validate the theory, I developed two trading strategies based on it (one with the gap and one with the window variation) and backtested them along with 5 variations of the traditional gap strategies discussed above. Figure 10 shows the 1-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 30- and 44-day period returns of the 7 strategies (#6 & 7 being the two based on the K-Divergence theory) and Figure 11 shows the annualized returns for the those same periods. The backtest took into account a total of 14,219 gaps over nearly a 2-year period. Figure 10. 1-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 30- and 44-day period returns Figure 11. Annualized 1-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 30- and 44-day period returns The two K-Div strategies were profitable throughout all periods. The only other consistently profitable strategy was Fading the Gap strategy which entailed taking a position in the opposite direction of the gap on Gap Day, but closing it immediately after the gap was filled. This once again goes against traditional theories which suggest that once a gap is filled, prices should continue going against the gaps direction as, supposedly, an important support/resistance was breached. It is noteworthy that the K-Divergence theory does not suggest that all gaps have occurred after important support/resistance levels or that they can all be traded profitably in a similar fashion as the GOOG example. Rather, it provides a framework for analyzing the gap phenomenon, on that all active investors/traders should believe in, which assumes that some market participants are able to act ahead of major moves (i.e. prior to the appearance of gaps). Furthermore, it eliminates the use of the hindsight gap classification system. For more on gaps, I recommend reading Julie R. Dahlquist and Richard J. Bauers Technical Analysis of Gaps book, where they conduct, one of the first on the topic, objective investigations of the phenomenon. For a much more in-depth coverage of the K-Divergence and my research on gaps, you can view my thesis for the Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Program, published in the 2018 IFTA Annual Journal. Conclusion In the future, regardless of whether you look for opportunities to trade gaps on Gap Day (strategies 1 & 2) or decide to use the K-Divergence as part of your trading arsenal, I hope this article would make you think more critically the next time you hear terms such as the runaway gap. And even more importantly, will push you to analyze gaps even after they have been filled, and according to traditional theory, have become insignificant. Happy gap trading. Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink. Rate this post: Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way. (2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this. Loading... Konstantin Dimov 4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated posts Follow @HackedCom Feedback or Requests? Continue Reading Analysis Silver Prices Poised for a Breakout Overview of Key Trigger Levels Published 1 day ago on April 21, 2018 By Konstantin Dimov Long-Term View Since 2003, silver has exhibited spectacular volatility, increasing by more than ten-fold by the 2011 peak, before declining by more than 72% by end of 2015. Despite the volatility over this 15-year period, the commodity has found support on several occasions at a key long-term trendline (green trendline; retests green arrows in Figure 1). More specifically, silver bounced off the support in 2008, 2015, and most recently in 2017 (green trendline currently at $15.50). For 2 years (2011- early 2013), silver found support just around the $26 level, before finally breaking below and plummeting in April 2012 (blue horizontal trendline; sell signal last blue arrow). While, it can be said that silver, similar to gold, has been forming a large inverse H&S pattern since 2013 (neckline yellow trendline), silver is further away from giving a buy signal based on this potential development. It is really the short-term view that reveals a well-defined pattern, whose completion may give a timelier signal. Figure 1. Silver (XSLV.X) 8-Day Chart // -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace. Short-Term View Zooming in, the daily chart reveals a strong support in the $15.50 $15.80 area (violet line at $15.70). Notice how when the commodity broke below $15.50 for the first time, it moved sharply lower, before finding support at the long-term support discussed in the long-term view (green arrow). Within a couple of trading sessions, silver was back above $15.50. A much more well-defined inverse H&S pattern is observed on the daily chart (lows orange ellipses, neckline orange downward sloping trendline, target orange vertical line). Figure 2. Silver(XSLV.X) Daily Chart // -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- // Implications A break above the neckline of the small inverse H&S will activate an upward target of $21.75. Furthermore, such a breakout would trigger a buy on the larger inverse H&S. While, a potential buy signal on the longer-term view may generate a target close to $28, the $26 level is expected to serve as a major resistance (i.e. resistance at $26 should take precedence over most other technical developments). Outlook Neutral with a bullish bias. If silver breaks the orange trendline (a close above $17.80 should be used as a trigger) outlook will shift to bullish. If the commodity breaks below $15.50, outlook will shift to bearish, as that would imply that both the $15.50 $ 15.80 support area (violet trendline) and the long-term support (green trendline) have been breached. Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink. Rate this post: Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way. (3 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this. Loading... Konstantin Dimov 4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated posts Follow @HackedCom Feedback or Requests? Continue Reading Recent Commentsembersburnbrightly on Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Tests $9000 as Altcoins Pull Back after Strong Rallyidm2000 on Bithumb to Launch ICO in Singapore Later This YearBossa on One Week With Live Streaming and I Ended Up With 13 500 USD in ProfitKiril Nikolaev on Trade Recommendation: Bytecoin/MoneroJochem50 on Trade Recommendation: Bytecoin/Monero Bitcoin:$25,000 By Year End? Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Tests $9000 as Altcoin... 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We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com. Trending Analysis1 week ago Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bumpy Road Ahead Despite Strong Rally Analysis1 week ago Cryptocurrency Prices: The Worst Is Behind Market News4 days ago Coinbase Alert: Amazon Is Coming Analysis3 days ago More Chance to Go Up for Litecoin Altcoins4 days ago Stellar Prices Jump to Six-Week Highs Ahead of Cannabis ICO Recommendations6 days ago Trade Recommendation: Stellar Altcoins6 days ago What Is Bitcoin Private and Why Is It Surging? ICO1 week ago ICO Analysis: Talao
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